Breaking: Mortgage Rates Hit Lowest Point in 12 Months

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News Flash

Rate Relief: Mortgage Costs Drop to 6.19%, Sparking the Great Refinance Rush

Mortgage rates just hit 6.19% — their lowest point in over a year.

That's real money back in your pocket. We're talking roughly $250 monthly savings compared to those brutal 7%+ rates from earlier this year.

The numbers tell an interesting story. This marks the third consecutive weekly drop, driven by anticipation of the Fed's October 29 rate cut — markets are pricing in a 97% chance of a 25 basis point reduction.

Here's what borrowers are doing about it:

Refinance applications now make up over half of all mortgage activity. For six straight weeks. Last week alone, they climbed to nearly 56% of total applications.

Homeowners are finally seeing an opportunity to escape those sky-high rates they've been stuck with.

Fannie Mae Bets on 6.3% Rates for 2025 — And Higher Home Sales

Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group just tweaked their forecast, and the news is cautiously optimistic.

They're now predicting mortgage rates will end 2025 at 6.3% — down from their earlier 6.4% estimate. Not exactly earth-shattering, but every basis point counts in this market.

The real story is in their home sales projection: 4.74 million units for 2025, including 4.065 million existing homes and 673,000 new builds.

Single-family mortgage originations? They're calling $1.88 trillion for next year.

Compare that to the Mortgage Bankers Association's more bullish $2 trillion prediction, and you can see Fannie Mae is playing it conservative. They're betting on steady growth, not a market explosion.

Sources: [Source], [Source], [Source], [Source]

More You Should Know

• Fed Poised for Rate Cut: The Federal Reserve is widely expected to implement a 25 basis point rate cut this week, marking the second such reduction to stimulate the economy amid labor market concerns and persistent inflation, with further cuts anticipated by year-end. [Source]

• Rent Growth Hits 15-Year Low: Single-family home rent growth slowed to a 15-year low of 1.4% in August 2025, alongside record-high multifamily vacancy rates and declining national median rents, signaling a sustained cooling in the rental market despite overall rents remaining significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels. [Source]

• Fall Housing Market Sees Surge: Zillow's September 2025 report reveals an unexpected fall housing market surge with increased listings and buyer's markets, driven by dipping mortgage rates and a strong stock market, suggesting continued momentum through year-end. [Source]

• Housing Inventory Climbs Significantly: U.S. housing inventory has increased by 15.1% year-over-year, marking 102 consecutive weeks of gains, as lower mortgage rates prompt more homeowners to list their properties despite homes spending more time on the market. [Source]

• Zoning Reforms Can Ease Housing Crisis: The U.S. housing affordability crisis, marked by millions of homes needed and soaring mortgage payments, could be significantly alleviated by relaxing local land-use regulations, which Goldman Sachs Research suggests could add 2.5 million units in a decade. [Source]

• FHFA: Home Price Growth Slows: U.S. home price appreciation has significantly moderated, with August 2025 showing a 0.4% monthly increase and a 2.3% year-over-year growth, alongside notable regional disparities ranging from price declines in the Pacific division to strong growth in the Middle Atlantic division. [Source]

• Builder Confidence Rebounds Slightly: Home builder confidence saw its first increase since April, jumping to 37 in October 2025 due to a dip in 30-year mortgage rates and a surge in sales expectations, even as many builders continued offering price cuts and incentives to attract buyers. [Source]

• Commercial Real Estate Optimism Grows: Commercial real estate professionals anticipate improved conditions due to expected interest rate declines, despite facing debt maturity challenges. Data centers are the strongest asset class. [Source]

• Home Sales Hit Seven-Month High: Existing-home sales in September 2025 rose 1.5% to a seven-month high, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million, as declining mortgage rates and improved housing affordability contributed to increased sales in most regions and a 27th consecutive month of annual price increases. [Source]

• Housing Unaffordable Despite Rate Dips: Despite recent declines in mortgage rates, housing affordability remains severely strained across the U.S. as home prices have surged more than 50% since 2020 while wages haven't kept pace, rendering typical homes unaffordable for average buyers. [Source]

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